LPL Weekly Market Commentary

Looking at A Good 3Q17, And A 2017 For the Record Books (So Far)

LPL Research recaps the 3Q17 earnings season, and what it means looking ahead, as well as takes a look back at the year so far, highlighting some remarkable statistics. “Another good earnings week. With over 80% of S&P 500 company results now in the books, third quarter S&P 500 earnings are tracking to an 8% year-over-year increase, 1.2% above the prior week.” Read more here. “What can we say about 2017 that hasn’t been said already, as it continues to smash records? Per Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist, “2017 will likely be remembered for two things: a persistent bullish trend and historically low volatility.”” See two more records that prove that point here.

November’s a big month…find out why!

As LPL Research tells us, “Along with the holiday anticipation November can bring, [November] is also historically a bullish time for equities. The S&P 500 Index is on pace to log another gain in October, marking 7 consecutive monthly gains on a price basis and 12 in a row on a total return basis (including dividends).”  So what lies ahead? Key takeaways include: November kicks off a historically strong period of the year for financial markets. Interest rate decisions from the Fed, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England are on tap soon. Next steps on tax reform will be very important this month. Get all the details here from LPL Financial’s John Lynch, Chief Investment Strategist, and Ryan Detrick, CMT Senior Market Strategist.

3Q2017 Earnings Preview: Slower, but Still Solid!

This week is the beginning of the 3rd Quarter earnings season, and LPL Research gives us an overview of what to expect.  “Third quarter earnings season gets underway this week (October 9–13) and it should be another good one. The S&P 500 Index has exceeded earnings expectations 33 straight quarters and we see no reason why the third quarter won’t make it 34.” Key takeaways from LPL Financial include: We expect another solid quarter of earnings growth, but a third straight double-digit increase for S&P 500 profits appears unlikely. Hurricane impacts, tougher comparisons, and a lack of contribution beyond technology and energy present earnings growth headwinds. Hurricane impacts aside, we have several reasons to be optimistic, including solid manufacturing data, recent U.S. dollar weakness, and resilient estimates. Read more from LPL Financial’s John Lynch, Chief Investment Strategist, and Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Equity Strategist.

October…Traditionally a Volatile Month?

  According to LPL Research, “October 2017 ushers in shorter days and cooler weather, but the global bull market shows few signs of slowing down.” Key takeaways from the most recent Weekly Market Commentary include: October is historically the most volatile month for equities. An election in Japan and interest rate decisions from the BOJ and ECB are on tap this month, only adding to potential movement. Initial third quarter GDP will be released, while third quarter earnings season begins. Read more from LPL Financial’s Ryan Detrick, CMT Senior Market Strategist, and John Lynch, Chief Investment Strategist.

The Bull Market Appears Alive & Kickin’!

September 26, 2017 | posted in: Blog, LPL Weekly Market Commentary, Uncategorized | by

The steady bull market—now the second largest—continues.
According to LPL Research, “The Dow just had its third nine-day win streak of 2017, which hasn’t happened within a single year since 1955. Can the rally continue? Key takeaways indicate that long-term technical indicators on equities continue to look strong. This is currently the second longest streak without a 3% correction for the S&P 500, suggesting volatility could come at any time. However, overall market sentiment continues to suggest that equity prices aren’t near a major peak.” Read more from LPL Financial’s Burt White, Chief Investment Officer, and Ryan Detrick, CMT Senior Market Strategist.

Growth Has Been on a Roll – What Lies Ahead?

September 19, 2017 | posted in: Blog, LPL Weekly Market Commentary | by

According to LPL Research, “Growth has been on a roll. Based on the Russell 3000 style indexes, growth’s 18% year-to-date gain is 14% ahead of value’s 4% advance. Looking further back, this growth outperformance is nothing new. Over the past 10 years, including the entire financial crisis period of 2008 and 2009, growth has outpaced value by about 50%, representing the longest period of growth outperformance since style indexes began to gain a following about 40 years ago. Using Fama-French* data back to the 1930s, before the Russell indexes were created, this is the longest bull market ever for growth stocks. Due to this observation setting off contrarian alarm bells in our heads, this week we discuss the potential for a value rebound.” Key takeaways: Growth stock valuations appear rich; its run may be poised to pause or reverse. Economic growth is improving, which tends to favor value. Technical analysis suggests that the growth rally may be overextended. Read more from LPL Financial’s Burt White, Chief Investment Officer, and Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Market Strategist.